Florida House, District 51
Represents District 51 (Part of Polk) in the Florida House; votes on state laws and the state budget. Term: 2 years.
Partly verified. Either the November opponent could not be confirmed from available sources, or only a few positions are documented. Confirm the full candidate list on your county sample ballot; unknown positions are shown as such.
How we verified who is on the ballot
Candidate list taken from the Florida Division of Elections, 2026 general election candidate list on 2026-09-18 ; statuses Qualified/Unopposed only. Counties from the Legislature's district listings.
Debates and forums
- No debate or candidate forum has been scheduled in this race (checked Oct. 17, 2026). Checked Vote411's Florida debates-and-forums calendar, the League of Women Voters of Florida newsroom, the county Leagues, chambers of commerce, Tiger Bay clubs and local NAACP branches; every legislative forum they list was held during the primary.
- 2026-10-15 · Free candidate meet-and-greet (not a debate), 5:30-7:30 p.m. at The Well, 114 E. Parker St., Lakeland, organized by a nonpartisan coalition led by the League of Women Voters of Polk County with the NAACP Lakeland Branch and others. Announced Oct. 14; no report found confirming it was held (checked Oct. 27).
Democrat Octavio Hernandez was listed as expected to attend; Republican Rep. Hilary Holley was not on the list.
Candidates
Report an error ↗Hilary Holley
Holley, a fifth-generation Floridian from Polk City, leads the Florida FFA Foundation and previously worked for Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, CFO Jimmy Patronis and state Sen. Denise Grimsley. She won the March 24, 2026 special election to replace Josie Tomkow.
Octavio Hernandez
Hernandez, 46, was born in Mexico City and lives in Davenport. He earned a political science degree from UCF in 2015, teaches algebra in Polk County schools and is a union member; this is his second run for the seat.
Side-by-side on the major issues
Each row is a statement. The chips show how each candidate's stated positions or record relate to that statement. Expand a row to read the evidence and sources. "No public position found" means we could not find a statement or record on the topic, not that the candidate has none.
| Issue | Hilary Holley Republican | Octavio Hernandez Democratic |
|---|---|---|
| Taxes & spendingCutting taxes should be a top priority, even if it means less government spending on services. | Leans agree· stated position Advocates a smaller, more efficient government that cuts bureaucracy. | No public position found |
| Property taxesFlorida should eliminate or sharply reduce homestead property taxes, even if local governments must cut services or find other revenue. | Leans agree· based on record Voted for HJR 1F, which placed the homestead-exemption increase (Amendment 3) on the November ballot; she joined the House after the HJR 203 vote. | Strongly disagrees· stated position Hernandez said no on the property-tax amendment, saying it would shift the burden to other taxes and strain local budgets. |
| Property insuranceThe state should intervene more directly in the property-insurance market (rate caps, expanding Citizens, stricter insurer regulation) rather than relying mainly on market-based reforms. | No public position found | No public position found |
| Housing affordabilityGovernment should do more to make housing affordable (subsidies, zoning changes, rent measures). | No public position found | Leans agree· stated position Would require completed developments to put unsold homes on the market rather than hold them as investments. |
| ImmigrationImmigration enforcement should be stricter, including large-scale deportation of people in the country illegally. | Strongly agrees· stated position Pledges to strengthen border security and enforce immigration laws. | Leans disagree· stated position Hernandez said he does not agree with current enforcement, objecting mainly to making local police responsible for immigration enforcement. |
| AbortionAbortion should be legal in most cases (Florida's six-week ban should be repealed or loosened). | No public position found | Strongly agrees· stated position Says abortion should be legal in any circumstance. |
| GunsGun laws should be stricter (keep the red-flag law and the age-21 purchase rule; expand background checks) rather than looser (permitless or open carry, lower purchase age). | No public position found | No public position found |
| Health careGovernment should expand its role in health coverage (expand Medicaid in Florida, extend Affordable Care Act subsidies). | No public position found | Leans agree· stated position Would support local clinics providing preventive checkups so uninsured people do not rely on emergency rooms. |
| Education & school choicePublic money should follow students to private, charter or home schools (universal school vouchers). | Strongly agrees· stated position Her site pledges to strengthen educational choices and expand access to charter schools and homeschooling. | No public position found |
| Environment & waterProtecting water quality, conservation land and climate resilience should take priority even if it slows development or raises costs. | Leans agree· stated position Pledges to protect rural lands that replenish aquifers and support farmers and ranchers. | Leans agree· stated position In the LkldNow November 2026 voter guide, published Oct. 6, 2026, Hernandez said the Legislature should pursue smart growth, make developers responsible for the infrastructure needs of the communities they build in, and protect the area's natural resources. |
| Growth & developmentGrowth and development should be slowed or more tightly regulated (higher impact fees, density limits, stronger local control). | Leans agree· stated position Says rapid growth is driving up housing costs and straining infrastructure and calls for smart development that preserves Polk County's character. | Leans agree· stated position Favors smart growth over sprawl and says local governments know their citizens' needs best. |
| MarijuanaRecreational marijuana should be legal for adults. | No public position found | No public position found |
| Elections & votingVoting should be made easier (mail voting, drop boxes, restoring voting rights) rather than adding new restrictions. | No public position found | No public position found |
| Crime & policingCriminal penalties should be tougher and police funding increased, rather than emphasizing reform and rehabilitation. | Leans agree· stated position Pledges resources for law enforcement and emergency responders. | No public position found |
| Gender identity lawsFlorida's laws restricting gender-affirming care for minors and classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity should remain in place. | No public position found | No public position found |
| Energy & utilitiesGovernment should promote renewable energy and tighten oversight of utility rate increases, even at the expense of fossil-fuel production. | No public position found | No public position found |
| Trump administrationI approve of the direction of the Trump administration. | No public position found | No public position found |
| VeteransExpanding VA services and veterans' benefits should be a top priority. | No public position found | No public position found |
Where they sit on the map
Each candidate is placed by the average of their documented stances. It is a summary of the table above, not an extra judgment.
How the axes are computed
Each axis is the average of a candidate's coded stances (+2 to −2) on a fixed set of statements, so it comes straight from the documented positions and nothing else. A candidate needs at least three documented statements on an axis to be placed.
Economic issues (toward "Smaller government (lower taxes, less spending)"): Taxes & spending (agree), Property taxes (agree), Health care (disagree), Housing affordability (disagree), Property insurance (disagree), Energy & utilities (disagree), Social Security & Medicare (disagree), Teacher and staff pay (disagree).
Social & legal issues (toward "Conservative side of the statements"): Immigration (agree), Abortion (disagree), Guns (disagree), Education & school choice (agree), Elections & voting (disagree), Crime & policing (agree), Gender identity laws (agree), Marijuana (disagree), Environment & water (disagree), Trump administration (agree), Library and classroom materials (agree), School safety approach (agree).
| Candidate | Economic issues | Social & legal issues |
|---|---|---|
| Hilary Holley | not enough data | 1.00 (4 statements) |
| Octavio Hernandez | -1.33 (3 statements) | -1.33 (3 statements) |
Other issues the candidates have raised
Priorities each candidate has brought up on their own, beyond the major-issue list above.
Hilary Holley
- Fundraising — LkldNow reported Holley had raised $55,450 for re-election.
Octavio Hernandez
- Fundraising — LkldNow reported Hernandez had raised $3,206.87.